A Bunch of Dummfuccs Dummfuccing All Over Themselves

[TF@work]

MORE LIKE DEMO-CRAZY

lol

[featherboa]

who?

[copstache]

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Jon Huntsman is a principled moderate conservative with governing and diplomatic experience, with a soft-spoken demeanor that helps to bridge the bipartisan gap.

He doesn't stand a fucking chance in the Republican primary. He worked with the Obama administration making deals with the Communist Chinee.

A race between Obama and Huntsman would be an intelligent, respectful and fruitful debate between the two major governing philosophies of the USA. It would be great for this country, and I would be disappointed but not terrified if Huntsman was the next president.

The right does not want that. They think they want Reagan but they really want Goldwater. And in the absence of any chance of a having the type of constructive race described above, I am more than happy to see them nominate Perry, Bachmann or Palin.

[TF@work]

see that's what i'm getting at; he's a great candidate when you actually write out what he's about, but an absolutely infeasible one in a primary sense

i have slightly more faith that he could (if he's able to keep his campaign coffers full enough) become far more attractive when the primary races become real and binding, because the bankrolling wing of the GOP doesn't want to toss good money after bad for a candidate that doesn't have good head-to-head prospects against obama

we all know bachmann won't make it, and perry is already starting to show some patina on the spurs given his statements about global warming and evolution—and again i'm speaking only from a general election sense, where he'd have to win over both moderate republicans and independents

granted this is very optimistic thinking but if he can build up some momentum in new hampshire and other states with moderate legacies, i think he's got a shot going forward

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I think you are underestimating how widespread and endemic the crazy on the right at this point and how even the business wing is sucked into the echo chamber of Fox, the WSJ editorial page etc... - my coworker a businessman conservative doesn't see anything wrong with Perry or Bachmann, he thinks the tea party is 50% of the country, etc... I don't see a scenario where Huntsman hangs around but Romney does not. Romney is preferable to the business community and more willing to hurl red meat, when the time is right, for the base and is a better retail politician. Right now, following the corporations have feelings too gaffe, Romney is actually taking on the Obama strategy of just sitting back and letting his opponents destroy themselves.

Huntsman is doing stuff like this:



Which is very cool, but is not going to win him friends or delegates. I think we will end up seeing a lead-up to a Bachmann-Romney race, and then the establishment right will dig up the left's abundant oppo research on Bachmann and sink her if a Christine O'Donell esque gaffe doesn't get her first.

[Zap Rowsdower]

I think you're overestimating the impact of the Tea Party movement. Every poll and study I've seen shows the general public becoming more and more disapproving of the movement. I'll trust that over the outlook of your one coworker.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I think you're overestimating the impact of the Tea Party movement. Every poll and study I've seen shows the general public becoming more and more disapproving of the movement. I'll trust that over the outlook of your one coworker.

I think you misinterpret what I am saying. I am saying that the Tea Party influene in the Republican primaries is overwhelming. Because of the echo chamber on the right, even moderate Repbublicans have been sucked into the crazy to the extent that they do not see Bachmann and Perry as the loonies they are, and think Obama is "far left". I used my coworker as an example of someone who is not a Christianist Norquist nut, who still believes the hype from the fringe.

The general public is disgusted with the tea party, but they vote in the general election. The primary elections, even those open to people outside the party, are for the partisans and interest groups, and if a more moderate Republican does manage to squeak through the process it will more likely be the richer, and more popular Romney than Huntsman.

[Zap Rowsdower]

Oh by all means that's what I'm expecting to play out in the primary. At this point I'd rather have Obama winning again, but it would be good to see a moderate like Huntsman get his name out there so if/when the Repubs get demolished in the next cycle, the GOP has to turn to someone more centered. I don't think Romney would be all that popular with a public - someone who owned a hedge fund suggesting he and his friends not pay higher taxes.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Romney has better name recognition, more money and is a better retail politician than Huntsman, and as much as people try to claim the Teabaggers are more about economics than the same olde time conservative relijun, this is not in fact the case, and the right is not concerned with Romney's former life of liquidating American companies and workers for Wall Street profits. As I said above, I would like to see a Huntsman-Obama race ideally in terms of having two adults in the room.

In the general election however I still think Romney loses to Obama for a few reasons, despite the fact that he is polling best amongst all Republican candidates right now.

1. He is a tremendous flip-flopper.
2. The right-wing base will not be energized to vote for a "best we can do" candidate again, they feel burned by supporting McCain.
3. The reasons you discuss above in terms of attracting independents and moderates.

Note to TF - maybe we should make this the unstoppable 2012 election thread - I was thinking of starting one on the eve of the Iowa Caucus anyway.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

See, the Gub'mint can learn a lot from how us humble folks work together.

[TF@work]

tl;dr

SPOILERSPOILER_SHOW

Romney doesn't do well in the head-to-head, at least not to the degree you'd want against a thoroughly unpopular president. A GOP toaster can get 57% of the vote, but none of the current candidates are as electable as any household appliance.

Strategically speaking—and this is a tired trope at this point but I don't care—the Tea Party really is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Considering all the current candidates in the GOP field (and let's be real, Ryan and Christie aren't running; Christie actually has never ran anywhere in his life), there is a marked Tea Party binary. Even as every candidate has tossed out chum for the extreme right, you'd be hard pressed to get an out-and-out Tea Party voter to support a Romney or Huntsman (or Gingrich, but he's obviously toast). The opposite effect also holds true: moderate Republicans and right-leaning independents will surely be given pause when asked to vote for Bachmann or Perry.

What then? If the GOP pushes for a candidate that riles up the Tea Party base, it further disillusions undecided voters, and that likely tips the election to Obama. Even if they make gains in either chamber of Congress, you can bet that this would result in tremendous dissatisfaction with the GOP establishment from their base.

But what if the GOP has a more moderate candidate as their contender? You open moderates/undecideds back up, but you severely undermine the types of voters that elected the Marco Rubios of the world. Do you honestly think that self-identified members of the Tea Party will vote for Romney or Huntsman? Not on your life. That puts the very real threat of a right-wing third party onto the table. Ron Paul fits that mold very well, and is obviously so averse to pragmatism that he'd possibly accept such a nomination.

I still want Huntsman.

[Zap Rowsdower]

I'm trying to imagine who would be the running mate for someone like Bachmann or Perry...I'm sure they'd like to pair with each other, but they'd need a voice of reason, but who would go with them?

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

I'm trying to imagine who would be the running mate for someone like Bachmann or Perry...I'm sure they'd like to pair with each other, but they'd need a voice of reason, but who would go with them?

Noun, Verb, 9-11. No one else is that cynical.

Though Perry seems to have a bro in VA gov McDonell who is ultra conservative but with a more moderate demeanor. I think a Marco Rubio, in the same mode but younger would also jump in. Anyone seems moderate compared to those two.

I'd see Palin over Paul being more likely to do the third party thing, her ego needs its own party.

To Fleet's points, you have to qualify Obama's unpopularity with the "at this point in their term" history. His approval ratings are hardly an unprecedented low, and when it comes to like him as a person people are still fairly positive.

You want a real nightmare though - imagine a Romney-Pawlenty bill vs. Obama/Biden splits the sane vote and Palin/Paul gets inaugurated with 35% of the vote in a low-turn-out. It couldn't happen, right....? Mommy?

[TF@work]

Obama's popularity is simply a function of the economic climate. If and only if we see job growth, the invective loses its teeth; if we see continued high levels of unemployment, the teeth get even sharper.

The GOP has that as a trump card: they can effectively crosscheck every single (potentially) pro-job bill into legislative purgatory under the auspices of big government et al., which in practice only reflects poorly on the party in the White House. No matter what the calls of obstructionism, what matters is the reality on the ground, not the process in Washington.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

True, which is why Obama's strategy has to be to lob one big, good, inoffensive idea at a time, like the infrastructure bank (or a veteran's jobs program) each month until the election, and speak about these ideas in terms of shiny and happy language about believing in American businesses and workers, etc.... and make the Republicans say no as loudly and publicly as they have before.

He could use one more bookend big win before the election. He has to re-own change you can believe in by pointing out some of his accomplishments i.e. this:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... mise-kept/

or this:

http://whatthefuckhasobamadonesofar.com/

i.e. you believed in me, and this changed.

Or he can get back in the African garb, put one of Bin Laden's bones through his nose and sing the Internationale at every campaign stop.

[SAUSAGES!!!!!!!!!!]

http://www.stormfront.org/forum/t734091/#post8417216

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

David Duke 2012 - Still More Electable and Sane Than Ron Paul

Slightly less racist too.

[TF@work]

Two things that, if they come to pass, cinch an Obama win in 2012:

1. Election day unemployment at or under 8.6% (the March 2009 number, the month after his first full month in office).
2. Gaddafi falls and the NTC attains control with little to no violence in the aftermath.

If those two things happen, the calls that he's a job killer begin to fall flat, and he's responsible for our first nominally successful military intervention since the 1990s. I'm not confident about that jobs number, but I'm increasingly optimistic about Libya.

That said, I'm not exactly stoked about another 4 years of the current face of governance. Even if we kept our head above water, net zero fundamental progress toward long-term solutions.

[Eight Foot Manchild]

"I accept reality. Call me crazy."

What a country of mouth-breathing retards we must be to have to apologize for something so utterly banal.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

TF

Same two criteria - if he can say he "got" Bin Laden and Ghaddafi (as much as any President gets anyone) and put us on a clear road to recovery by the end of this first term, along with "pick any 10 other accomplishments". If he can keep on pace with troop withdrawls as well, that would be great.

And yes, the news out of Libya the last few days has been very encouraging, and even Syria may have some light at the end of the tunnel, in terms of the pressure now coming from their neighborhood like Turkey.

I think at some point he needs to get out in front on Gay Marriage and the Union struggles in the rust belt/mid-atlantic. This is his base, particularly in terms of volunteer hours and he does need to energize them. Immigration wouldn't hurt either. No anti-immigration assholes are going to vote for him anyway, so might as well get people psyched, and he can do it in such a way as to get the churches and business community around him too.

[Black Jacques]

Thank god I'm not interested in this - not sure if I could handle Johnlapse posting more than once a day...

[TF@work]

(Black Jacques, more like FOED Jacques)

I think you hit a good point re: immigration. That's one where he'd put any potential GOP rival in an awkward position: business wants immigrant labor, and would support some measure of leniency and such; hardliners want to install community trebuchets so they can fling any suspected Hispanics into rural Bolivia. How do you counteract a sensible immigration reform stance without agreeing with the guy you're trying to paint as the worst person ever?

As stupid as American politics is, it's fun to think about the game itself. Like football, but the rules are different and the Cowboys are still xasthur fans.

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Thank god I'm not interested in this - not sure if I could handle Johnlapse posting more than once a day...

Don't worry, I'm sure there will be a new major environmental disaster for you to syncophantically defend on behalf of your blameless corporate slavemasters soon enough, toolshed.

With all due respect....

[Chevalier Mal Fet]

Huntsman/Paul 2012.

Make it happen, John.

My dream ticket is Paul/Perot, they can clasp hands, get on stage and kick into an awesome prospector jig. I have actually dreamed about this.